Opinion: Arctic meltdown creates hot political policy issues
(David J. Keeling/The Spectrum, 1 April 2007) -- Internecine scientific struggles over defining and measuring global climate change are obscuring more important questions about the policy dimensions of such change. Exacerbating the problem are ostrich-like government attitudes toward climate change that completely fail to focus attention on the more serious challenges facing society.While individuals, organizations, and governments can dispute interminably the role of human actions in the ongoing climate changes, the reality is that humans will face significant impacts whomever or whatever the culprit. The real focus of the debate, therefore, should be about climate change's policy implications and what should be done to plan for its eventuality. With the International Polar Year just underway, what is desperately needed is a significant effort by policymakers to address the enormous political, economic, and environmental challenges to be thrust upon governments by a melting Arctic. Geographers know that the key to planning for global climate change - or war, the economy, or the environment for that matter - is understanding its spatial dimensions. They have demonstrated time after time that geographic ignorance about the peoples and places targeted by governmental and other policies often precipitates policy disasters. How different might the outcome of the Iraq war have been, for example, if policy development and implementation by the United States government had been driven by a detailed and finely nuanced geographic analysis of Iraq's peoples, places and resources?
Global climate change is inevitable. Its implications for humankind, however, are not. Understanding the geography of climate change can shed light on the critical policy questions that need to be asked. For example, melting Arctic ice likely will open up the northern sea lanes between Europe and Asia for at least two months annually, offering a dramatically shorter shipping route between the major ports of Europe and East Asia than via the Suez Canal.
The policy implications of a possible boom in shipping across Arctic waters are significant. Geopolitics, environmental concerns, and economic relationships all factor into issues that need to be considered by policymakers.
For one thing, both Russia and Canada view their northern sea routes as sovereign territory. The U.S. treats these waters as international areas and thus open for free passage. There are still considerable disagreements between the U.S. and Canada over territorial rights in the Arctic Circle, with the Canadian Prime Minister in 2006 issuing a blunt "hands off" warning to its southern neighbor.
Complicating the geopolitics are U.S. Geological Survey estimates that at least a quarter of all undiscovered oil and natural gas might be found in the Arctic region. Other complications related to an increase in Arctic shipping include the enforcement of fishing rules, smuggling and piracy concerns, and environmental protection in this very ecologically sensitive area.
The International Polar Year is highlighting the environmental fragility of both the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Yet the scientific attention paid this coming year to these regions will come to naught if policymakers across the planet do not recognize the long-term implications of climate change in the Arctic.
The U.S. government should take the lead in developing policies that recognize the complexity of issues facing the Arctic. It should work toward an international consensus that recognizes the Arctic as the common heritage of humankind. It should find ways to engage those countries most impacted by climate change in the Arctic in a way that leads to meaningful, geographically informed policies and shared responsibilities. Anything less will send any hope we have of coping with the long-term implications of climate change in the region melting away as fast as the Arctic ice.
David J. Keeling is a professor of geography at Western Kentucky University. He can be reached at -270-745-5985 e-mail at david.keeling@wku.edu
email to: agra...@yukoncollege.yk.ca
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