|
(Marlowe Hood/AFP, 29 November 2009)—PARIS — Whatever the outcome of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Nature may have some extremely nasty surprises up its sleeve, say scientists. They say Earth's biosphere has numerous "tipping points"—triggers that cause global warming and its impacts to lurch up a gear or two, rather than occur in a smooth, incremental way. In other words, the planet itself would become the main driver of warming, making the crisis far more difficult to manage. Many of the tipping points have only been discovered within the last decade or so, and experts admit to many unknowns as to how and when they could occur. Here is a summary of the main triggers, outlined by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and in studies published in peer-reviewed journals: The Arctic ice cap, which in winter covers some 15 million square kilometres (5.8 million square miles), is shrinking. Whether the region's first ice-free summer happens in five years or 50 is only a matter of 'when', not 'if', many scientists say. ... Since 2000, though, Greenland has lost 1,500 billion tonnes of ice, contributing 0.75 mm (0.03 inch) annually to sea levels, and some scientists fear it could collapse within a couple of centuries. ... Locked inside permafrost, covering a fifth of Earth's land surface, are billions of tonnes of carbon in the form of methane, a greenhouse gas 30 times more potent than CO2. The top three metres (10 feet) of this frozen landscape—up to a kilometre (half-mile) thick—contain as much carbon as Earth's atmosphere. As temperatures rise, more and more methane is freed and enters the atmosphere, adding to the greenhouse effect. ... More than half the CO2 humans generate is absorbed, in roughly equal measure, by forests and oceans. Earth's plant life is so far keeping pace with emissions despite tropical deforestation. But oceans are showing signs of fatigue, according to a study released last week by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international consortium of climate scientists. Over the last half century, the percentage of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere that stays there has gone up from 40 to 45 percent, fuelling the greenhouse effect. Part of the decrease may be due to carbon saturation and rising emissions. But rising temperatures also cause ocean acidification, hampering the ability of marine organisms—plankton, algae, coral—to transform CO2 into calcium-rich shells that help to lock away carbon for millennia.
Posted by Amanda Graham – 29 November 2009; 10:55:25 AM – Permalink
Tagged: Arctic, News, Polar research: Reports and findings
|